Updated September 2026
Check the most common claims from Reform UK and Restore Britain about migration against the latest official data.
Tap a claim to see who said it, what the official data shows, and anything the claim gets correct.
Every figure links to its source, mostly the Home Office, the Office for National Statistics, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the National Audit Office, Parliament and NHS England.
13 claims checked: 7 false, 5 misleading, 1 opinion
The data on this page can correct facts, but it can't tell you anyone's motives. Most people drawn to Reform or Restore are reacting to something real, and they'll only listen to someone who takes that seriously.
"This illegal invasion is a national security emergency." — Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader1
False Arrivals are falling: down 23% in a year and at their lowest since 2021.
What the data shows
Small boat arrivals are falling. There were 33,374 in the year to June 2026, 23% fewer than the year before and broadly in line with 2022 and 2024 levels.2 By early September 2026, arrivals over the previous 12 months (about 27,900) were the lowest since 2021 and 40% below the September 2025 peak.3
*2026 is 1 January to 24 September only, and figures may still change. Figures are people detected arriving by small boat, by calendar year.466
Why did crossings start in 2018?
Small boat arrivals weren't recorded separately before 2018 because there were very few, so the chart can't go further back.
Where the claim has a point
2025 was up 13% on 2024, at 41,472 arrivals.4 Some of the recent fall is down to fewer unofficial border crossings across Europe and fewer Syrians after Assad fell, not only UK policy.3
What other parties propose
"Britain is at BREAKING POINT" — Reform UK5
False Net migration has fallen by three-quarters of a million since its 2023 peak.
What the data shows
Net migration (people arriving minus people leaving) was 171,000 in 2025, down from 331,000 the year before and roughly three-quarters of a million below its early-2023 peak. More British and EU citizens are now leaving than arriving.6 Small boats are a small slice of the total: in the year to June 2026 the UK issued 235,000 work visas and 383,000 study visas, against about 33,000 small boat arrivals.7
Peak: year to March 2023
2024
2025
Office for National Statistics, early estimates, May 2026.68
Where the claim has a point
The 2022–23 surge was real: net migration peaked at 944,000 in the year to March 2023, far above what governments promised.68 Official forecasts have also tended to guess too low.9
What other parties propose
Crossers are "predominantly young men from sub-Saharan Africa" — Reform UK10
Misleading Some are refused, but most come from countries at war or under harsh regimes, and no data shows how many are economic migrants.
What the data shows
The top five nationalities crossing by small boat are Eritrean (18%), Sudanese (13%), Afghan (13%), Somali (12%) and Iranian (11%) — mostly countries with war, dictatorship or severe repression.2 The UK's statistics watchdog has said there's no data showing how many small boat arrivals are economic migrants, and that claims about the proportion shouldn't be made.11 Historically, about a third of people who appealed a refusal have won.12
2001–2018 average
2022
2023
2024
2025
Home Office; Commons Library. 2019–2021 are not shown because the sources used here don't give them.6912
Where the claim has a point
The share of claims approved first time has fallen to 38%, from 48% a year earlier and a 77% peak in 2022.13 Pakistanis are now the largest group claiming asylum overall.12 So it's no longer accurate to say almost all are genuine refugees. It is accurate to say most small boat arrivals come from countries where persecution is common.
What other parties propose
"You will be detained and deported and never, ever allowed to stay" — Nigel Farage, on people arriving illegally14
False For most nationalities there's no legal route: you can't claim asylum from abroad.
What the data shows
There is no asylum visa: you have to be physically in the UK to claim, and you can't apply from abroad.15 Special routes are limited — about 39,100 Afghans have been resettled or relocated since 2021,12 while there is no equivalent route for Eritreans or Sudanese. By June 2026, the UK–France "one in, one out" deal had returned 1,087 people to France,16 against about 33,000 small boat arrivals in the year to June.2
Where the claim has a point
Crossers have passed through safe countries such as France, and UK law lets the government refuse to consider a claim for that reason — though international law doesn't require refugees to claim in the first safe country.15 Some argue the answer is more returns, not more legal routes.
What other parties propose
Many are "entirely dependent on the welfare state" — Zia Yusuf, Reform UK head of policy17
False Asylum seekers get basic housing and a small weekly allowance, not normal benefits, and aren't allowed to work.
What the data shows
Asylum seekers can't claim normal benefits and generally aren't allowed to work. Those with no money or home get basic accommodation and £49.18 a week to live on.18 About 93,000 people were on asylum support in June 2026, and hotel use halved in a year to 16,000 people.7 Only once someone is granted refugee status can they claim benefits like anyone else.18
June 2024
June 2025
March 2026
June 2026
Full Fact asylum hotels tracker; Home Office. June 2025 is derived from the Home Office statement that June 2026 was 50% lower.707
Where the claim has a point
Newly granted refugees do draw on council services. In just one quarter (October to December 2025), 3,670 households in England became homeless after leaving Home Office asylum accommodation and needed council help, and another 2,200 needed help to avoid becoming homeless.19 This adds to the pressure on councils. It also shows refugees aren't automatically given homes.
What other parties propose
Reform will "ensure only UK citizens receive welfare or social housing" — Zia Yusuf20
False 89% of new social housing goes to UK nationals, though population growth does add local strain.
What the data shows
89% of new social housing tenancies in England in 2024/25 went to UK nationals.21 Nationality isn't ethnicity, so there's no data supporting a specific "white British lose out" claim — and many non-white social tenants are British citizens.
New lettings
MHCLG, social housing lettings in England, 2024/25.21
Where the claim has a point
Net migration accounts for around two-thirds of forecast growth in the adult population,8 and that adds to demand for housing, GP appointments and school places, often concentrated in particular towns.
What other parties propose
"The outrageously expensive asylum hotel scheme, which nobody in Britain ever voted for" — Nigel Farage22
Misleading Costs rose five-fold and were badly managed, but they're falling and are about 0.3% of public spending.
What the data shows
Asylum support spending rose from £739m in 2019–20 to a £4.7bn peak in 2023–24, then fell to £4bn in 2024–25.23 Against total public spending of £1,368bn in 2025–26,24 that's about 0.3% — around 30p in every £100. Costs are now falling as the backlog of undecided claims shrank 56% in a year, and hotel use with it.7
All public spending, £1,292bn
Home Affairs Committee; Office for Budget Responsibility, total public spending, 2024–25.2367
Where the claim has a point
A five-fold rise in five years is huge, and it was badly managed — the expected cost of the accommodation contracts tripled from £4.5bn to £15.3bn.23 Counting the courts as well, the Home Office and Ministry of Justice spent around £4.9bn on asylum in 2024–25, and the National Audit Office found much of the accommodation cost might have been avoided with faster decisions.25 Even so, that's under 0.4% of public spending.
What other parties propose
"Our changes will save British taxpayers at least £234 billion" — Nigel Farage26
Misleading Low-wage migrants do cost more than they pay in, but the £234bn figure was withdrawn and average earners are net contributors.
What the data shows
The Office for Budget Responsibility (the government's official spending watchdog) found that a migrant arriving at 25 on average earnings pays in more over their lifetime, compared with what they use, than a UK-born worker on the same pay, because the UK didn't fund their childhood education and healthcare. High earners are strongly positive.27 The £234bn figure came from a think-tank report that has since been withdrawn, and it was never an estimate of benefit payments.26 Migrants generally can only claim benefits once they get permanent residence (called indefinite leave to remain);28 before that, a rule called "no recourse to public funds" blocks most benefits and social housing.29
Where the claim has a point
The same watchdog found low-wage migrants take out more than they pay in over their lifetime,27 and the Migration Advisory Committee estimated that one group of people who came on partner visas would cost more than they pay in.28 The same is true of low-paid British workers, so this is about how much people earn, not where they were born.
What other parties propose
"We've had years and years of Islamist thugs roaming our streets" — Rupert Lowe, Restore Britain leader30
Misleading Islamist extremism is the biggest terror threat, but 80% of terrorism prisoners are UK nationals.
What the data shows
Terrorism is overwhelmingly a home-grown problem, not an immigration one. 80% of the 273 people in custody for terrorism offences in March 2026 were UK nationals, and 72% of all terrorism arrests since 9/11 have been of British citizens. Excluding Palestine Action cases, 242 people were arrested for terrorism in the year to March 2026 — and 29% of those in custody hold extreme right-wing views.31
By nationality
By ideology
Home Office, Terrorism Act statistics to March 2026. Ideology percentages are as published and sum to 99% because of rounding.31
There are 159 Islamist-extremist prisoners31 out of 3.9 million Muslims in England and Wales32 — roughly 1 in 25,000. Deporting asylum seekers or scrapping permanent residence wouldn't touch the large majority of cases.
Where the claim has a point
Islamist extremism is the largest single threat — 58% of terrorism prisoners — and 60% of terrorism prisoners are Muslim,31 far above the 6.5% Muslim share of the population.32 Some attacks have been carried out by people who arrived as asylum seekers — the 2017 Parsons Green bomber arrived as a teenage asylum seeker from Iraq.33 The data doesn't show there's no problem. It shows the problem is small in absolute terms, mostly home-grown, and not solved by migration policy.
Rupert Lowe has claimed an "undeniable link" between Islam and the rape gangs.34
Misleading Some local patterns are real, but national data can't support the claim, and viral figures are unreliable.
This is the area where the data is weakest on both sides, so how the numbers are used matters as much as the numbers themselves.
Sexual offences by nationality. Widely shared figures, based on Ministry of Justice data released under Freedom of Information, suggest foreign nationals received 15% of sexual offence convictions in 2021–23 while making up 9.3% of the population, and that Afghans and Eritreans were over 20 times more likely than Britons to be convicted.35 The problems:
Grooming gangs. Baroness Casey's 2025 national audit found ethnicity wasn't recorded for two-thirds of perpetrators, so national data can't support conclusions either way. Abuse by groups or gangs is a small share of child sexual abuse: about 700 recorded group-based offences in 2023, against around 100,000 child sexual abuse offences overall. And the audit's main finding was about the authorities: victims were disbelieved and blamed by the agencies meant to protect them.39
Where the claim has a point
Casey found disproportionate numbers of Asian men among suspects in local data from three police force areas, and criticised authorities for years of dodging the issue — including claims of an overwhelming problem with White perpetrators that couldn't be proved.39 Some offenders were migrants: three of the Rochdale gang were Pakistan-born men who had naturalised, and were later stripped of British citizenship.40 The local pattern and the failures by authorities are real. The data doesn't support blaming all Muslims or all migrants.
Illegal migrants: "every single one must be deported" — Restore Britain41
Opinion A view on what should happen, so the data can’t settle it either way. Removals are already rising, but half of refused asylum seekers are never removed.
What the data shows
Removals are already rising: 41,000 returns in the year to June 2026, up 8%.7 Reform proposes scrapping permanent residence (indefinite leave to remain), even for people who already have it, and limiting benefits to citizens,42 which would hit legal, tax-paying residents, not just people here without permission. Restore's plan involves repealing the Human Rights Act and Equality Act and leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.43 Sectors like social care rely heavily on migrant workers: about a third of adult social care posts in England are filled by non-British nationals.44
Where the claim has a point
Many refused asylum seekers are never removed. Of asylum claims made between 2010 and 2022 that were refused, only around half had led to a return by the end of 2025.45 That undermines public trust, and supporters argue enforcement has to be credible for any system to have consent.
What other parties propose
Many due for settlement "are not working, have not worked and in all probability will never, ever work" — Nigel Farage74
False Migrant men are more likely to be in work than UK-born men, and migrants fill one in five NHS jobs.
What the data shows
In 2025, 83% of working-age men born abroad were in work, against 77% of men born in the UK. For women the rates were almost identical, at 72% and 73%. About one in five employees in the UK is a non-UK national.73 Around 325,000 of the 1.5 million NHS staff in England reported a non-British nationality in June 2025, including 36% of doctors,47 and about a third of adult social care posts are filled by non-British nationals.44
Men born abroad
Men born in the UK
Women born abroad
Women born in the UK
Migration Observatory, from the Labour Force Survey.73
NHS staff in England, June 2025
NHS doctors
Adult social care posts in England, 2025/26
Commons Library, NHS staff from overseas; Skills for Care, 2026.4744
Where the claim has a point
Work rates vary a lot by route. People who first came to claim asylum have lower employment and higher unemployment than other non-EU migrants,73 and many people due for permanent residence are family members, such as partners and children, rather than workers. No official figure backs Farage's "over 50%", but no official figure rules it out either.
"It's not even multiculturalism in many areas of Britain, there is one culture - Islam." — Rupert Lowe46
False Muslims are 6.5% of the population of England and Wales, and many contribute directly to public life, often citing their faith.
What the data shows
At the 2021 Census, 3.9 million people in England and Wales, or 6.5%, identified as Muslim.32
In the NHS, NHS England estimated in 2020 that 3.3% of its 1.4 million workers were Muslim — around 46,000 people.48 NHS Digital figures cited in evidence to Parliament put the number of Muslim doctors at nearly 13,000 in 2019, about 10% of NHS doctors, against their 6.5% share of the population.4932 There's no official data on the religion of care home staff.
When Covid hit, the first four doctors named as dying on the UK's front line — Adil El Tayar, Amged El-Hawrani, Habib Zaidi and Alfa Sa'adu — were all Muslim, with roots in Sudan, Pakistan and Nigeria.50
In their own words. Some examples of people linking their service directly to their faith:
Where the claim has a point
In the 2021 Census, Muslims aged 16 to 64 had the lowest employment rate of any religious group — 51.4%, against 70.9% overall — largely because more were students or looking after home and family.55