Updated 1 October 2026

Fact checking Reform UK & Restore Britain

This page fact checks Reform UK and Restore Britain’s biggest claims about migration against official data, and gives you the facts you need to answer them.

Each claim is summarised in plain English. Tap one to see exactly what was said, what the official data shows, how it was picked up by the press, and how to respond.

Every figure links to its source, mostly the Home Office, the Office for National Statistics, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the National Audit Office, Parliament and NHS England.

13 claims checked: 2 true, 4 missing context, 3 misleading, 2 false, 2 unproven

  • TrueThe data backs it up
  • Missing contextPartly right, but leaves out something important
  • MisleadingUses some real facts to give a false impression
  • FalseThe data shows it’s wrong
  • UnprovenThere isn’t enough evidence to back it up

Why this page exists

This page is here to help in three ways:

→Why it’s important to address these claims

Reform UK and Restore Britain say a lot about migration. Some of it is true, a lot of it is stretched, and some of it is simply wrong. And it spreads: from a speech or a post, into a headline, into a conversation at the dinner table.

Words like these don’t always stay words. In the days after the Southport murders in July 2024, posts giving a false name for the attacker reached an estimated 27 million impressions in a single day, and one post falsely claiming he was an asylum seeker had over 1.4 million impressions on X. (Home Affairs Committee) Rioters targeted mosques and hotels housing asylum seekers, including one in Tamworth that people tried to set on fire. (Home Affairs Committee) Police recorded more racially or religiously aggravated offences that August than in any month on record, and religious hate crimes against Muslims rose 19% in the year to March 2025. (Home Office)

Politicians’ words can play a part. As false claims about the attacker circulated, Nigel Farage posted a video saying “I just wonder whether the truth is being withheld from us”, calling it “a fair and legitimate question”. Critics, including Brendan Cox, widower of the murdered MP Jo Cox, accused him of peddling conspiracy theories. (HuffPost) It isn’t only one party: when Boris Johnson compared women in burqas to “letterboxes” in 2018, anti-Muslim incidents reported to the monitoring group Tell MAMA rose 375% the following week, and 42% of street incidents in the weeks after referred to him or his words. (Press Gazette)

No official body has found that Reform UK or Restore Britain caused any of this, and this page doesn’t claim they did. But the pattern is why their claims are worth checking.

Where this page stands. It isn’t neutral, but it doesn’t claim other parties get everything right, or that Reform and Restore never have a point. Where they do, it says so. What it sets out to show is how their claims are built, how they’re amplified, and what they’re designed to do.

→How to talk to Reform and Restore supporters

The facts on this page can correct claims, but they can’t tell you anyone’s motives. Most people drawn to Reform or Restore are reacting to genuine concerns, and they’ll only listen to someone who takes that seriously.

  1. Start with what they’re right about. Concede the fair points early: the 2022–23 surge, badly managed asylum spending, broken promises on numbers, pressure on local services, the grooming gang failures. It shows you’re arguing in good faith.
  2. Ask before you correct. “Where did you see that figure?” or “What would change your mind?” gets further than leading with a statistic.
  3. Challenge claims, not character. “That number’s out of date” keeps the conversation going. “That’s racist” usually ends it and hardens the view.
  4. Separate the party from the voter. Criticise specific policies and rhetoric. Don’t assume every supporter holds the most extreme version.
  5. Keep scale in view. Many claims rest on accurate but small or local numbers presented as national trends. “How many, compared to what?” is often the most useful question.
  6. Use one or two facts, not twenty. Pick what the person actually cares about, whether that’s housing, cost, safety or fairness.
  7. Accept a partial win. If someone goes from “all migrants are…” to “some migrants are…”, that’s progress. Nobody changes their mind mid-argument.

The claims

Reform UK

1Nigel Farage · Reform UKSmall boat crossings are completely out of controlMisleading

They say

“Yes, we [Britain] have managed to stop some of the dinghies. But it doesn’t stop the problem. It doesn’t go away. It is completely out of control.”

Nigel FarageReform UK leader, press conference, August 2026HuffPost UK ↗▶ Watch the clip (Sky News)

Misleading Crossings are still high, but they’re falling fast, and Farage admitted as much at the same press conference.

What the data shows

Small boat arrivals fell to 33,374 in the year to June 2026, 23% fewer than the year before.2 By early September 2026, arrivals over the previous 12 months (about 27,900) were the lowest since 2021.3 In the same press conference, Farage said: “The overall numbers are down. But they’re still horrendous.”1

Returns are rising too: there were 40,605 returns from the UK in the year to June 2026, up 8%.4

💬 How to respond to this claim

Crossings are falling, not out of control.

Crossings are down 23% in a year, and Farage admitted the numbers are falling. They’re still too high, but “completely out of control” isn’t what the figures show.

📰 In the headlines

Small boat arrivals by yearArrivals peaked at 45,774 in 2022 and rose again in 2025. Between 1 January and 9 September 2026, arrivals were 47% lower than in the same period of 2025.
Bar chart of small boat arrivals: 2018 299, 2019 1,843, 2020 8,466, 2021 28,526, 2022 45,774, 2023 29,437, 2024 36,816, 2025 41,472, 2026 so far 18,565.010k20k30k40k50k2018: 299 arrivals’182019: 1,843 arrivals’192020: 8,466 arrivals’202021: 28,526 arrivals’212022: 45,774 arrivals’2245,7742023: 29,437 arrivals’232024: 36,816 arrivals’242025: 41,472 arrivals’2541,4722026: 18,565 arrivals (1 January to 24 September)’26*18,565

*2026 is 1 January to 24 September only, and figures may still change. Figures are people detected arriving by small boat, by calendar year.56

Why did crossings start in 2018?

  • Other routes were closed off. Before 2018, most people arriving without permission hid in lorries or on trains. From 2014, Britain and France added fencing, CCTV, heartbeat monitors and CO2 detectors at Calais and the Channel Tunnel, which pushed people towards boats.78
  • Smuggling became an industry. Gangs grew larger and more organised. A crossing cost around €14,000 in 2018 and well under €4,000 by 2024.7
  • Covid shut the remaining routes. In 2020 the pandemic made lorry, ferry and air routes harder still, and boat numbers jumped.2
  • Brexit's role is disputed. The UK left the EU's Dublin returns system at the end of 2020, but it had only returned about 560 people a year under it. Researchers say it’s unclear how big a role this played.78

Small boat arrivals weren't recorded separately before 2018 because there were very few, so the chart can't go further back.

Where the claim has a point

Numbers are still high: 33,000 arrivals a year is close to the 2024 total of 36,816, and 2025 was up 13% on 2024.5 Some of the recent fall is down to fewer unofficial border crossings across Europe and fewer Syrians after Assad fell, not only UK policy.3 Whether today’s level counts as “under control” is a judgement, but the trend is down.

What other parties propose

  • LabourRun the Border Security Command and the UK–France returns deal and, under Andy Burnham, expand detention and speed up removals.910
  • ConservativesBan asylum claims from people who arrive without permission, remove them within a week, and set up a Removals Force to deport 150,000 people a year.11
  • Lib DemsWork with European partners, including through Europol, against smuggling gangs.9
  • GreensStop crossings by opening safe and legal routes, with few details so far.129
2Zia Yusuf · Reform UKBritain’s foreign-born population is at a record highTrue

They say

“A staggering 1 in 5 people now living [in] the UK were born abroad. A new record. 13.1 million foreign born people lived here in 2024.”

Zia YusufReform UK shadow home secretary, X, September 2026Post on X ↗

True The UK’s foreign-born population is a record 13.1 million, about 1 in 5 people. But net migration has fallen sharply.

What the data shows

13.12 million people living in the UK in 2024 were born abroad, 19% of the population and the highest since this data series began in 2004. In 2004 it was 5.26 million.14

That number counts everyone born abroad, including people who arrived decades ago and people who have since become British citizens. The yearly flow tells a different story: net migration (people arriving minus people leaving) fell to 171,000 in 2025, down from 331,000 the year before and about three-quarters of a million below its 2023 peak.15

💬 How to respond to this claim

It’s a record, but net migration has fallen sharply.

Yes, it’s a record, because it counts everyone who has ever moved here, including people who became British citizens decades ago. Net migration has fallen by about 80% since its 2023 peak.

Born abroad: a record highForeign-born people living in the UK.

2004

5.3m

2024

13.1m

Migration Observatory, from the Annual Population Survey.14

Net migration has fallen sharplyPeople moving to the UK minus people leaving, for a year or more. Latest official estimates.

Peak: year to March 2023

944,000

2024

331,000

2025

171,000

Office for National Statistics, early estimates, May 2026.16

What the claim leaves out

The same post said the figure was “up 143% in a decade”. The rise from 5.26 million took twenty years, not ten.1417 And because the foreign-born population changes slowly, it can keep hitting records even while new arrivals fall.

What other parties propose

  • LabourTighten the rules on work and study visas, with higher minimum salaries and English requirements. Burnham says net migration should fall further but has set no target.910
  • ConservativesToughen the rules on who can stay permanently.9
  • GreensDrop the minimum income that work visa holders need to bring their partner to the UK.12
3Zia Yusuf · Reform UKMost people crossing the Channel are young menTrue

They say

“Tens of thousands of fighting-age males continue to arrive on our beaches.”

Zia YusufReform UK shadow home secretary, article, August 2026Reform UK website ↗

True Most people crossing by small boat are adult men, and there are tens of thousands a year.

What the data shows

Since 2018, 71% of people detected arriving without permission, mostly by small boat, have been adult men, and 18% have been under 18.2 In 2025, about 76% of arrivals were adult men.7 With 41,472 arrivals that year,5 that’s roughly 31,000 men. Earlier Home Office figures found 70% of arrivals between January 2018 and June 2022 were men aged 18 to 39.19

Why mostly men? The journey is dangerous and expensive. At least 162 people died trying to cross the Channel by small boat between 2018 and 2025, about 1 for every 1,190 people who made it, and at least 17 more by early August 2026. Not every death is recorded, so the true toll may be higher.20 The Migration Observatory says that’s one reason for the high share of men: “In many cases, female and minor children join later through family reunification routes.”7 Research shows some men later apply to bring their partners and children once they’re granted refugee status.21 The official figures fit that pattern: of the 20,817 refugee family reunion visas granted in the year to June 2025, 56% went to children and 37% to women.22 That route was paused in September 2025.23 Some men are also escaping forced military service: the Home Office’s own guidance says Eritrea’s national service is, “in practice”, “open-ended”.24 Worldwide, women and girls make up about half of all refugees, and most refugees stay in countries next to their own.25

💬 How to respond to this claim

Mostly men, because the journey is so dangerous.

True, most are young men. But the largest group is Eritrean, and 84% of Eritrean and 92% of Sudanese asylum claims are approved.

📰 In the headlines

Who crosses by small boatEveryone detected arriving without permission since 2018, mostly by small boat.

Arrivals since 2018

  • Adult men 71%
  • Under 18 18%
  • Adult women and others 11%

Home Office, year ending June 2026.2

What the claim leaves out

“Fighting-age” suggests a threat, but it says nothing about why people come. The largest group is Eritrean, followed by Sudanese and Afghan, and 84% of Eritrean and 92% of Sudanese asylum claims are approved.26 Claim 4 looks at this in more detail.

4Zia Yusuf · Reform UKPeople crossing the Channel are coming to make money, not fleeing dangerMisleading

They say

“[Under Reform’s plan,] economic migrants will stop paying smugglers, and the boats will stop coming.”

Zia YusufReform UK shadow home secretary, article, August 2026Reform UK website ↗

Misleading Almost everyone crossing claims asylum, and most small-boat claims decided so far have been approved, though approval rates are falling.

What the data shows

99% of people arriving by small boat claim asylum, and about 62% of first decisions on their claims between 2018 and 2025 were approvals.7 The top five nationalities in the year to June 2026 were Eritrean (18%), Sudanese (13%), Afghan (13%), Somali (12%) and Iranian (11%).2 For Sudanese applicants, 92% of claims were approved; for Eritreans, 84%.26 The UK’s statistics watchdog has said there’s no data showing how many small-boat arrivals are economic migrants.27

Why not come legally? You can’t apply for asylum from abroad.28 Only 3,840 people came through resettlement schemes in the year to June 2026, mostly Afghans, and there’s no dedicated route for Eritreans or Sudanese. The refugee family reunion route was paused in September 2025.23

💬 How to respond to this claim

Most people who cross are found to need protection.

62% of first decisions on small-boat arrivals’ claims since 2018 have been grants of protection. You can’t apply for asylum from abroad, and for most nationalities there’s no legal route.

How often asylum claims are approvedShare of first decisions that were approvals.

Sudanese, year to June 2026

92%

Eritrean, year to June 2026

84%

Small-boat arrivals, 2018 to 2025

62%

All asylum claims, year to June 2026

38%

Home Office; Migration Observatory.267

Where the claim has a point

The overall approval rate for asylum claims has fallen to 38%, from 48% a year earlier, and some groups are now mostly refused: only 10% of Syrian claims were approved.26 People crossing have passed through France, where they could have claimed asylum.28 So some arrivals aren’t refugees. But the data doesn’t support calling them economic migrants as a group.

What other parties propose

  • LabourLimit refugee status to 30 months at a time, reviewed before renewal, and use a “visa brake” to limit student and work visas for some nationalities.29
  • ConservativesLimit refugee status to people threatened by foreign governments.9
  • Lib DemsBuild a “fair and secure asylum system” and stay in the European Convention on Human Rights.30
  • GreensReplace the Home Office's role with a new Department of Migration, separate from criminal justice.12
5Zia Yusuf · Reform UKAsylum seekers are put up in luxury hotels with everything paid forMissing context

They say

“…a political class that puts them [people arriving illegally] up in luxury hotels at the British taxpayer’s expense, providing them with free meals, free healthcare, free TV licences…”

Zia YusufReform UK shadow home secretary, article, August 2026Reform UK website ↗

Missing context Some asylum seekers are housed in hotels with meals provided, and they get NHS care. But most aren’t in hotels, there’s no evidence the hotels are luxury, and asylum seekers generally can’t work.

What the data shows

Asylum seekers get basic housing and a small weekly allowance while they wait for a decision on their claim. Most aren’t in hotels: at the end of June 2026, 93,293 people were on asylum support, and 16,021 of them (17%) were in hotels, half as many as a year earlier. Most of the rest (78%) were in other housing, such as shared houses and flats.31

People in self-catered housing get £49.18 a week to live on; people in hotels where meals are provided get £9.95.32 Asylum seekers can’t claim normal benefits and generally aren’t allowed to work. Only once someone is granted refugee status can they claim benefits like anyone else.33 We couldn’t find any evidence of asylum seekers being given free TV licences.

So why use hotels at all? The Home Office tries to house asylum seekers in ordinary houses and flats, and turns to hotels when there aren’t enough.34 During Covid it stopped moving people out of asylum housing, and slow decision-making let the backlog of undecided claims grow, so demand outstripped supply. MPs found hotels were “intended to be a short-term response” but became “an enduring part” of the system.35

💬 How to respond to this claim

Fewer than 1 in 5 asylum seekers are in hotels, and they’re not luxury.

Fewer than 1 in 5 asylum seekers are in hotels now. Those who are get £9.95 a week with meals provided, and they aren’t allowed to work.

📰 In the headlines

Fewer asylum seekers in hotelsPeople in asylum hotels at each date.

June 2024

29,561

June 2025

~32,000

March 2026

20,885

June 2026

16,021

Full Fact asylum hotels tracker; Home Office. June 2025 is derived from the Home Office statement that June 2026 was 50% lower.3637

Where the claim has a point

Hotel rooms, meals and NHS care are all provided, and hotels have been very expensive (see claim 6). Newly granted refugees also draw on council services: in one quarter (October to December 2025), 3,670 households in England became homeless after leaving asylum accommodation and needed council help.38

What other parties propose

  • LabourEnd hotel use and make asylum support conditional rather than guaranteed. Burnham also wants councils to have a formal say in placements.2910
  • ConservativesEnd hotel use, and make migrants wait ten years before they can claim benefits.939
  • Lib DemsLet asylum seekers with valid claims work, and clear the backlog with emergency processing centres and three times the staff.9
  • GreensLet asylum seekers work, and scrap the rule that stops many migrants claiming benefits.12
6Nigel Farage · Reform UKLabour has increased the number of asylum hotelsMissing context

They say

“The numbers [of small boat arrivals] are up. There are more [asylum] hotels in use now than there were when [Labour] first came into power.”

Nigel FarageReform UK leader, GB News, December 2025GB News ↗

Missing context When Farage said this, more people were in hotels than when Labour took office, and crossings were up. But the number of hotel buildings was falling, and hotel use has since halved.

What the data shows

When Labour took office, 29,561 people were in asylum hotels (end of June 2024).36 By the end of September 2025 it was about 36,000.41 Small boat crossings in 2025 were also up on 2024.5 But the number of hotel buildings in use fell from 213 in July 2024 to fewer than 160 by August 2026,36 and by June 2026 the number of people in hotels had halved to 16,021.31

What hotels cost. A hotel place costs about £145 per person per night, against about £23 in other asylum housing.35 Hotels held about a third of people in asylum housing but made up about three-quarters of its cost.34 Total asylum support spending rose from £739m in 2019–20 to £4.7bn in 2023–24, then fell to £4bn in 2024–25. That’s about 0.3% of public spending.3542

💬 How to respond to this claim

Hotel use has halved in a year.

Hotel use has halved in a year. But you’re right that hotels were a scandal: they cost about six times more than other asylum housing.

Hotels cost six times moreCost per person per night of asylum housing.

Hotel

£145

Other asylum housing

£23

Home Affairs Committee, 2025.35

Asylum support in contextOut of every £100 of public spending in 2024–25, about 31p went on asylum support.

All public spending, £1,292bn

  • Asylum support, £4.0bn 0.3%
  • Everything else 99.7%

Home Affairs Committee; Office for Budget Responsibility, total public spending (total managed expenditure), 2024–25.3542

Where the claim has a point

Hotels have been hugely expensive and badly managed: the expected cost of the accommodation contracts tripled from £4.5bn to £15.3bn, and the National Audit Office found costs were driven by long delays and backlogs, and that significant accommodation costs might have been avoided.3543

What other parties propose

  • LabourCut asylum spending by £1bn a year by 2028–29, mainly by reducing new claims and increasing removals.449
  • ConservativesUse savings from closing hotels to fund the Removals Force.9
  • Lib DemsOpen emergency processing centres and triple the number of decision-making staff.9
  • GreensLet asylum seekers work so they can support themselves.12
7Zia Yusuf · Reform UKMost social housing in London goes to foreign nationalsFalse

They say

“The majority of social housing in London, I understand, goes to foreign nationals.”

Zia YusufThen Reform UK head of policy, BBC Newsnight, November 2025OnLondon ↗▶ Watch at 6:13 (BBC)

False About 1 in 6 new lettings by London’s big housing associations went to foreign nationals, and nearly 9 in 10 new social lettings across England went to UK nationals.

What the data shows

In England, 89% of lead tenants in new social housing lettings in 2024/25 were UK nationals.46 In London, the big housing associations known as the G15 let 17% of their new lettings to foreign nationals in 2024/25, and the 2021 Census found about 11% of London’s social housing was occupied by foreign nationals.45 Reform didn’t respond to repeated requests for the evidence behind the claim.45

What “foreign national” means. A foreign national is someone who isn’t a British citizen. That’s different from being born abroad: many people born abroad have become British citizens.47 Some coverage blurs the two, calling people “foreigners” when the figures are for everyone born abroad, including British citizens (see the headline below).

Nationality isn’t the same as ethnicity: many social tenants from ethnic minorities are British citizens.

💬 How to respond to this claim

Most social housing in London goes to UK nationals.

In London, the big housing associations let about 1 in 6 of their new homes to foreign nationals. Across England it’s about 1 in 10.

📰 In the headlines

Who gets new social housingLead tenants of new social lettings, 2024/25, by nationality.

England, all new lettings

  • UK nationals 89%
  • Other nationalities 11%

London, big housing associations (G15)

  • UK nationals 83%
  • Foreign nationals 17%

MHCLG; OnLondon, from G15 figures.4645

Where the claim has a point

Net migration accounts for around two-thirds of forecast growth in the adult population,48 so it adds to demand for housing and local services.

What other parties propose

  • LabourUnder Andy Burnham, give councils in poorer areas a formal say in where asylum seekers are housed.10
  • ConservativesCreate a power to take away permanent residence from people judged to be a burden.9
  • GreensScrap the rule that stops many migrants claiming benefits (called "no recourse to public funds"), arguing it deepens inequality.12
8Nigel Farage · Reform UKReform’s plans would save taxpayers £234 billionFalse

They say

“Under Reform, welfare will only be for UK citizens. No foreign nationals will be entitled to any benefits. Our changes will save British taxpayers at least £234 billion over the lifetime of these migrants.”

Nigel FarageReform UK leader, Daily Mail, September 2025Full Fact ↗

False The £234 billion was a think tank’s estimate of what a group of migrants would cost over their lifetimes, not what Reform’s changes would save, and the think tank has withdrawn it.

What the data shows

The figure came from a Centre for Policy Studies report. It was an estimate of the total lifetime cost of a group of migrants to public services, minus the tax they pay, not the cost of their benefits. The think tank said benefits were “only a fraction” of it.4950 It then withdrew the figure after the Office for Budget Responsibility changed some of the data behind it, saying the estimates “should no longer be used”.49 So it was never an estimate of what Reform’s changes would save.

Most migrants can’t claim benefits anyway until they get permanent residence (called indefinite leave to remain).51 Before that, a rule called “no recourse to public funds” blocks most benefits and social housing.52

💬 How to respond to this claim

The £234 billion figure has been withdrawn.

The think tank behind that figure withdrew it, and it was never a saving from benefits. Most migrants can’t claim benefits until they get permanent residence anyway.

📰 In the headlines

Where the claim has a point

The Office for Budget Responsibility (the independent official watchdog for the public finances) found that low-paid migrants take out more than they pay in over their lifetime. A migrant arriving at 25 on average earnings is a net contributor, and high earners much more so.5354 So how much migration costs depends heavily on who comes, and that point stands.

What other parties propose

  • LabourMake people earn permanent residence: double the standard wait to 10 years, longer on some routes, and keep “no recourse to public funds”.2910
  • ConservativesIntroduce a 10-year wait for permanent residence and a further 5 years for citizenship, and create a power to take residence away.9
  • GreensScrap the rule that stops many migrants claiming benefits.12
9Reform UKHalf of recent migrants will never workMisleading

They say

“The Conservative Party’s failed immigration policies allowed 3.8 million people (96% non-EU) into the country on long-term visas during the Boriswave (2021-2024). About half of these migrants will never work.”

Reform UKParty policy page, live September 2026Reform UK website ↗

Misleading Many of the 3.8 million came to study, and many then move on to work visas. People on work visas must have a job. About half of some groups of family members weren’t working, but “never” is a guess.

What the data shows

Many of the 3.8 million came to study. Students don’t have to work, but many move on to work visas: of students who arrived in 2022, fewer than a third had left within two or three years, and many had switched to the Graduate visa or a work visa.56 People on skilled worker visas must be employed to keep their visa, and their median pay is £56,600.57 HMRC data for 2023/24 found about half of adult family members of skilled workers, and about a third of family members of health and care workers, weren’t working.57

Across all migrants, work rates are similar to people born here: in 2025, 83% of working-age men born abroad were in work, against 77% of men born in the UK. For women the figures were 72% and 73%.58

💬 How to respond to this claim

Migrants are as likely to work as people born here.

Migrant men are more likely to be in work than British-born men. Many of the 3.8 million came to study and went on to work visas, and work visa holders have to be employed to stay.

Migrants are as likely to work as people born hereWorking-age employment rate, 2025.

Men born abroad

83%

Men born in the UK

77%

Women born abroad

72%

Women born in the UK

73%

Migration Observatory, from the Labour Force Survey.58

Non-British staff keep services runningShare of staff with a non-British nationality.

NHS staff in England, June 2025

21%

NHS doctors

36%

Adult social care filled posts in England, 2025/26

32.5%

Commons Library, NHS staff from overseas; Skills for Care, 2026.5960

Where the claim has a point

Work rates do vary a lot by route. Many family members aren’t working, and people who first came to claim asylum have lower employment than other migrants.58 That’s a fair concern, even if “half will never work” can’t be backed up.

What other parties propose

  • LabourClosed the dedicated visa route for recruiting care workers from overseas.60
  • GreensEnd the "hostile environment" and support migrants to settle and put down roots.12
10Reform UKSmall boats are bringing murderers and terrorists to BritainMissing context

They say

“Over 200,000 people have landed on our shores by boat illegally over the last 8 years. … Most of them are military aged men, including murderers and terrorists. Some have raped and murdered British people, some have attempted terror attacks.”

Reform UKParty policy page, live September 2026Reform UK website ↗

Missing context The numbers are right and most arrivals are men. A small number have committed serious crimes, including terrorism. But there’s no evidence it’s more than a tiny fraction, and most terrorism offenders in Britain are British.

What the data shows

About 193,000 people arrived by small boat between 2018 and 2025, and most were adult men.7 With 2026 arrivals added, “over 200,000” is accurate.

There have been individual cases. Ahmed Alid, a Moroccan asylum seeker, was jailed for life in 2024 for a terrorist murder in Hartlepool.61 The 2017 Parsons Green bomber had arrived as a teenage asylum seeker.62

But terrorism in Britain is mostly home-grown. 80% of the 273 people in prison for terrorism in March 2026 gave their nationality as British, and 72% of people arrested for terrorism since 9/11 said they were British or dual British nationals. Official figures don’t record whether offenders arrived as asylum seekers.63

💬 How to respond to this claim

Terrorism in Britain is mostly home-grown.

There have been terrible individual cases. But 8 in 10 people in prison for terrorism in Britain are British nationals, not foreign nationals.

📰 In the headlines

  • MailOnline · July 2025Said “official data” showed “one in 30” small-boat migrants end up behind barsMailOnline corrected the line after Full Fact pointed out that there’s no reliable public data on how many small-boat arrivals go to prison. The “one in 30” came from a Conservative Party analysis that compared prison figures from March 2025 with 2021 Census population figures, without fully explaining its method.
Who is in prison for terrorismAll 273 people in custody for terrorism offences in Great Britain, March 2026.

By nationality

  • British 80%
  • Other 20%

By ideology

  • Islamist 58%
  • Extreme right-wing 29%
  • Other 12%

Home Office, Terrorism Act statistics to March 2026. Ideology percentages are as published and sum to 99% because of rounding.63

Where the claim has a point

Islamist extremism is the largest single threat: 58% of people in prison for terrorism hold Islamist views.63 Some attackers did arrive through the asylum system. The data shows there is a problem, but a small one in number, and mostly not about new arrivals.

Restore Britain

11Rupert Lowe · Restore BritainGrooming gangs are linked to IslamUnproven

They say

“Our inquiry report proves that without doubt there is an undeniable link between religion and the rape gangs. Islam. As a country, we need to find the courage to finally say so.”

Rupert LoweRestore Britain leader, X, June 2026Post on X ↗

Unproven Official data doesn’t record offenders’ religion, and national data on ethnicity is too patchy to prove this either way. Local data does show Pakistani-heritage men over-represented.

What the data shows

Lowe’s own inquiry, which isn’t an official one, counted how many people convicted had “distinctively Muslim names”.65 A name isn’t a record of someone’s faith.

Baroness Casey’s 2025 national audit found ethnicity wasn’t recorded for two-thirds of perpetrators, so national data isn’t good enough to draw conclusions. Religion isn’t recorded at all. Local data from three police force areas did show disproportionate numbers of men from Asian backgrounds among suspects.66 The government said there was “clear evidence of over-representation among suspects of Asian and Pakistani-heritage men”.67

Group-based abuse is a small share of child sexual abuse: about 700 recorded group-based offences in 2023, while police recorded just over 100,000 child sexual abuse and exploitation offences in 2024. The audit’s main finding was about the authorities: victims were disbelieved and blamed by the agencies meant to protect them.66

💬 How to respond to this claim

The data can’t show a link to Islam.

The authorities failed victims, and Pakistani-heritage men were over-represented in some areas. But religion isn’t recorded, and most child sexual abuse isn’t committed by gangs.

📰 In the headlines

Where the claim has a point

There is an over-representation of Pakistani-heritage men among suspects in the areas studied, and Casey criticised authorities for years of dodging the issue.66 But that’s ethnicity in some areas, not proof of a link to a religion followed by nearly 4 million people in England and Wales.68

What other parties propose

  • LabourAccepted all 12 of Casey's recommendations, including a national criminal operation led by the National Crime Agency and mandatory recording of ethnicity and nationality in child sexual abuse cases.6769
12Restore BritainThere are up to 2 million illegal migrants in BritainUnproven

They say

“Our research suggests that there are up to 2 million illegal migrants in Britain today.”

Restore BritainParty website, February 2026Restore Britain website ↗

Unproven Nobody knows the exact number, but the best published estimates are well under half of that.

What the data shows

The best-known estimates put the number of people living in the UK without permission at 700,000 to 900,000 (Pew Research, revised in 2025) or around 674,000 (Greater London Authority). Both are based on 2017 data.71 Full Fact has called higher figures “out of date and unreliable”.72

Restore Britain’s stated policy is that “every single one must be deported”.70 That’s a policy choice rather than a checkable claim. For scale, there were 40,605 returns from the UK in the year to June 2026, 9,669 of them enforced.4

How does the UK compare? The best estimates put the UK’s undocumented population at around 1% of people. That’s similar to Spain and Italy, higher than Germany and France, and about a quarter of the US rate, where around 4% of people are undocumented.7374 Restore Britain’s 2 million would be about 3%. Most people here without permission are thought to have arrived legally, usually by plane, and stayed on after their visa ran out, although there’s no reliable breakdown.75

💬 How to respond to this claim

The best estimates are less than half that.

The best estimates are 700,000 to 900,000, and nobody knows the real figure. There’s no evidence for 2 million.

📰 In the headlines

  • Daily Mail · 23 January 2025Revealed, how one in 12 living in London is an illegal migrantThe press regulator, IPSO, ruled the headline inaccurate. The study behind it covered only part of London, and 1 in 12 was its highest estimate, not its central one. Measured against London’s whole population, the Mail’s own figures meant between 1 in 15 people (the highest estimate) and 1 in 22 (the lowest). The Mail took the article down and published a correction. The Telegraph’s version was also ruled inaccurate.
How the UK comparesEstimated undocumented migrants as a share of the population.

United States (2023)

4.1%

UK (2017)

0.9–1.1%

Spain (2019)

0.8–1.0%

Italy (2023)

0.8%

Germany (2017)

0.7–0.8%

France (2017)

0.3–0.4%

Pew Research Center; MIrreM project. Estimates are for different years and use different methods, so treat them as rough.7473

Where the claim has a point

The estimates are old, and tens of thousands of people have arrived by small boat each year since, so the real number may be higher than them. Many refused asylum seekers are never removed: only around half of claims refused between 2010 and 2022 had led to a return by the end of 2025.76

What other parties propose

  • LabourStay in the European Convention on Human Rights but review how UK courts apply the articles on degrading treatment and family life; expand detention.910
  • ConservativesLeave the Convention, repeal the Human Rights Act, abolish the immigration tribunal, and remove 150,000 people a year.11
  • Lib DemsReaffirm the UK's commitment to the Convention.30
  • GreensEnd immigration detention except for people who pose a danger to the public.12
13Rupert Lowe · Restore BritainIslam is taking over parts of BritainMissing context

They say

“It’s not even multiculturalism in many areas of Britain, there is one culture - Islam.”

Rupert LoweRestore Britain leader, X, July 2025Post on X ↗

Missing context Muslims are 6.5% of people in England and Wales. Some neighbourhoods and constituencies are majority Muslim, but no council area is.

What the data shows

At the 2021 Census, 3.9 million people in England and Wales (6.5%) were Muslim, up from 4.9% in 2011. The council areas with the highest share were Tower Hamlets (39.9%), Blackburn with Darwen (35.0%) and Newham (34.8%).68

Some smaller areas are majority Muslim. Three parliamentary constituencies were, on 2021 boundaries: Birmingham Hodge Hill (62.4%), Bradford West (58.7%) and Birmingham Hall Green (55.9%).78 In Blackburn, the Bastwell and Daisyfield ward is 92.1% Muslim.79 Having a majority of people from one religion isn’t the same as having “one culture”, which the Census can’t measure.

What about “no-go areas”? Claims that parts of Britain are off-limits to non-Muslims come up often, and haven’t stood up. In 2015, a Fox News guest who said Birmingham was “totally Muslim” and that non-Muslims “simply don’t go in” apologised, calling his comments “totally inaccurate”.80 In December 2025, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner said of London: “There’s no no-go areas, that’s completely false.”81 Full Fact found: “There is nowhere in London where the law doesn’t apply.”82 Even so, a 2026 poll found that 34% of people believe London has areas “where Sharia law dominates and non-Muslims cannot enter”. The typical guess of London’s Muslim population was 35%. The Census says 15%.83

Something to be proud of. Most people in Britain see diversity as a strength. In an international survey, 70% of people in the UK said immigration strengthens cultural diversity, second only to Canada among the countries compared, and just 5% said they wouldn’t want immigrants as neighbours, down from 14% in 2009.84

💬 How to respond to this claim

Most British Muslims feel strongly attached to Britain.

Muslims are 6.5% of people in England and Wales, and no council area is majority Muslim. In one large survey, 93% of British Muslims said they felt a strong attachment to Britain.

📰 In the headlines

How Muslim are the most Muslim areas?Share of residents who are Muslim, Census 2021.

England and Wales

6.5%

Tower Hamlets (highest council area)

39.9%

Birmingham Hodge Hill (highest constituency)

62.4%

Bastwell and Daisyfield ward, Blackburn

92.1%

ONS; Full Fact; Lancashire County Council.687879

Muslims in public life

In the NHS, NHS England estimated in 2020 that 3.3% of its 1.4 million workers were Muslim — around 46,000 people.85 NHS Digital figures cited in evidence to Parliament put the number of Muslim doctors at nearly 13,000 in 2019, about 10% of NHS doctors, against their 6.5% share of the population.8668 There's no official data on the religion of care home staff.

When Covid hit, the first four doctors named as dying on the UK's front line — Adil El Tayar, Amged El-Hawrani, Habib Zaidi and Alfa Sa'adu — were all Muslim, with roots in Sudan, Pakistan and Nigeria.87

In their own words. Some examples of people linking their service directly to their faith:

  • Grenfell, 2017. Muslim residents awake after night prayers during Ramadan were among the first to raise the alarm,88 and the nearby Al-Manaar mosque opened its doors as a shelter for people who lost their homes.89
  • Feeding the homeless. Serving food alongside church volunteers at Christmas, a worker from the Al-Khair Foundation explained that Islam teaches "we can't go to bed on a full stomach while our neighbour goes hungry."90
  • Charitable giving. A 2023 survey of 3,000 people found British Muslims gave an average of £708 to charity over a year, against £165 for the wider population — much of it through zakat, the religious duty to give.91

Where the claim has a point

In a handful of neighbourhoods, like Bastwell and Daisyfield, more than 9 in 10 residents are Muslim,79 so for people living there, Lowe’s description may feel closer to the truth. It just doesn’t describe “many areas of Britain”.

Why does it worry people? Fast change in a neighbourhood can be unsettling, especially for people who feel nobody asked them, and some worry that communities are living separate lives. Those are fair things to talk about. But the evidence suggests British Muslims feel part of the country. In a 2016 Policy Exchange survey of more than 3,000 British Muslims, 93% said they felt a strong attachment to Britain.92 In Birmingham, 76% of Muslims gave their national identity as British or English only at the 2021 Census.93 Where Muslims don’t feel they belong, many point to hostility: in a 2026 Muslim Census survey, just over half said they felt they belong in the UK, and many raised fears about rising Islamophobia and political hostility.94

The facts

More context

→Common terms explained
Migrant
There’s no single definition. Official figures usually mean either someone born abroad or someone who isn’t a British citizen, and those are different groups (see below). Migration statistics count someone as a long-term migrant if they move to the UK for at least a year. ONS
Born abroad and foreign national
“Born abroad” (or foreign-born) means born outside the UK, whatever your nationality now. A foreign national is someone who isn’t a British citizen. Many people born abroad have become British citizens, so figures for people born abroad aren’t figures for “foreigners”. ONS
Visa holders
Most people who move to the UK come legally, on a visa to work, study or join family. People on work visas need an employer to sponsor them. Most visa holders can’t claim benefits or social housing until they get permanent residence, usually after five years. They pay a visa fee and an NHS charge, the Immigration Health Surcharge, of £1,035 a year for most adults or £776 for students. Since 2024, most students and care workers can’t bring family members with them. GOV.UK: health surcharge · Parliament: 2024 visa changes
EU Settlement Scheme
Lets EU, EEA and Swiss citizens, and their families, who were living in the UK by 31 December 2020 stay. Settled status means permanent residence, and by June 2026 it had been granted just under 4.6 million times. Home Office
Asylum seeker
Someone who has asked the UK for protection and is waiting for a decision. They usually aren’t allowed to work. If they have nowhere else to go, they get basic housing and £49.18 a week, or £9.95 if meals are provided. GOV.UK
Refugee
Someone whose asylum claim has been accepted, because they face persecution or serious harm at home. In the year to June 2026, 38% of first decisions on asylum claims were approvals. Home Office
Small-boat arrivals
People who cross the Channel in small boats. Almost all of them claim asylum. About 41,500 arrived in 2025, around 5% of the roughly 813,000 people who moved to the UK that year. ONS · Home Office
Safe and legal routes
Schemes that let people seeking safety come to the UK without a dangerous journey. Most places have gone to people from Ukraine (290,000 visas since 2022) and Hong Kong (188,000 British National (Overseas) visas since 2021). Far fewer, about 44,000 since 2021, came through resettlement schemes for Afghans and refugees from other countries. Most Ukrainians and Hong Kongers come on visas rather than as refugees. Home Office
Irregular or “illegal” migrants
People living in the UK without permission. Most are thought to have arrived legally, often by plane, and stayed after their visa ran out, though there’s no reliable breakdown. They can’t legally work, rent a home in England or claim benefits, and are charged for most hospital care, though they can register with a GP. Like everyone, they pay VAT on what they buy. People who arrive by small boat and claim asylum are in the asylum system, not hiding from it. Migration Observatory
→More about Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe

Nigel Farage has a long record of remarks about particular groups of people that others have condemned as racist. He said people would be right to be concerned if a group of Romanians moved in next door, warned of a “fifth column” in Europe after the Charlie Hebdo attack, unveiled the “Breaking Point” poster of refugees during the Brexit campaign, and said Rishi Sunak doesn’t understand “our culture”. During the 2024 election, Reform dropped three candidates over racist and offensive comments.

In 2024 he accepted a £5 million personal gift from Christopher Harborne, a crypto investor and Reform’s biggest donor, which he didn’t declare to Parliament; he says he didn’t have to, as he wasn’t an MP at the time, and that no rules were broken. He has described it as money for his security, as a “reward for campaigning for Brexit”, and as “literally none of your business”. The Parliamentary Standards Commissioner resumed its investigation in August 2026. Separately, the Commissioner has found he registered 17 outside interests late, including GB News pay, which it judged inadvertent.

Rupert Lowe promised Restore Britain would put forward no Bangladeshi candidates, proposed a “Red List” of countries, including Pakistan and Bangladesh, whose citizens would be barred from easier spouse visas, and said many Muslims in Manchester aren’t integrating. He compared the grooming gangs cover-up to the Holocaust, and was recorded making a “Jewish camera” joke. Reform suspended him in 2025 over allegations of bullying and threats, which he denies; prosecutors decided not to charge him because of insufficient evidence.

→Explore where the answers are more complicated
  • Low-wage migration: economists still disagree about whether its benefits to the economy outweigh its cost to public services.54
    Learn more: Migration Observatory →
  • What's driving the fall in crossings: UK policy, EU enforcement and events abroad all play a part, and researchers can't yet say how much each one matters.3
    Learn more: Migration Observatory →
  • The falling approval rate: it could reflect fewer genuine refugees, a changing mix of nationalities, or tougher and faster decision-making.26
    Learn more: House of Commons Library →
  • Crime data: there's very little official data on offenders' nationality and ethnicity. The national audit of grooming gangs found ethnicity wasn't recorded for two-thirds of offenders, so police must now record it in all child sexual abuse cases. That means we'll know more in future.9566
    Learn more: House of Commons Library →
  • Public trust: Reform and Restore supporters argue voters were repeatedly promised lower migration and didn't get it. That's a political argument, not a statistical one, but it's worth engaging with.
    Learn more: British Future and Ipsos →
→See the sources used on this page

Official statistics and Parliament (42)

Research and fact-checkers (27)

News and commentary (17)

Parties and politicians (9)